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    期刊文獻+

    中國經濟增長新動能統計測度研究 認領

    Research on Statistical Measurement of New Driving Force of China’s Economic Growth
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    摘要 通過梳理新動能的本質特征和構成要素,從投入與產出兩個視角構建經濟增長新動能指標體系,然后運用基于相對標準化法的綜合評價指數對新動能進行動態分析。結果表明:與2013年相比,2014—2018年,中國經濟增長新動能定基指數增長顯著,產出指數大于投入指數,投入產出效率良好;新動能環比指數高于上一時期,增速表現為升降交替的階段性特征,產出指數逐漸滯后于投入指數,產出效率有所降低。由于大多數年份新技術、新資本、新人才與新資源環比指數均大于100,增長趨勢具有一定的波動性,因此新動能投入環比指數呈現先漲跌交替,繼而快速增長的變動趨勢;整體上新市場、新創業、新企業、新模式、新產業與新產品環比指數表現為波動式下降,引起新動能產出環比指數增速先升后降,甚至出現負值。新動能處于初步聚集、積累漸進式增長階段,經濟轉型是一個長期過程,需要源源不斷的創新要素投入才有可能實現新動能的顛覆式增長。 Through further combing the essential characteristics and components of new driving force,this paper constructs a new driving force index system of economic growth from the two perspectives of input and output,and then uses the comprehensive evaluation index based on the relative standardization method to carry out dynamic analysis of new driving force.Firstly,the fixed base index of new driving force continued to rise compared with 2013,the output index is ahead of the input index,and the input-output efficiency of the new driving force is good;The new kinetic energy index is higher than that of the previous period,and the growth rate shows the periodic characteristics of alternating rise and fall,the output index gradually lags behind the input index,and the output efficiency is reduced during 2014-2018.Secondly,in terms of input index,the index of new technology,new capital,new talents and new resources in most years is higher than that in the previous period,and the growth trend has certain volatility,which causes the index of input index to show a trend of rising and falling first and then rapid growth;In terms of output index,the overall new market,new entrepreneurship,new enterprises,new models,new industries and new products index showed a fluctuating decline,which lead to the growth rate of output index rising first and then falling,even a negative value.Finally,new driving force is in the initial stage of accumulation and gradual growth,economic transformation is a long-term process,which requires constant input of innovation factors to achieve subversive growth of new driving force.
    作者 柴士改 李金昌 CHAI Shi-gai;LI Jin-chang(School of Economics,Anyang Normal University,Anyang 455000,China;School of Mathematics and Science,Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)
    出處 《統計與信息論壇》 北大核心 2021年第1期47-58,共12頁 Statistics & Information Forum
    基金 國家社會科學基金青年項目“我國經濟發展新動能的統計測度及其效應研究”(18CTJ007)。
    關鍵詞 新動能 創新 投入產出 經濟增長 new driving force innovation input-output economic growth
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